Saturday, October 13, 2012

Plausible Deniability and Voting Third-Party

I have a hypothesis. I won't say it's a theory, because that will just bring up all my memories of having debates with people who say things like "it's only a theory!" and I don't have time for that here. Like I was saying...

I have a hypothesis, and that is that third-party voters are the hipsters of the political scene. I've seen this get thrown around with Ron Paul, but he's not even third-party. No, I'm talking about the candidates that are so far out of the mainstream, that the only evidence we have of their existence is the media equivalent of shoddy demo tapes: Ross Perot, Ralph Nader, Gary Johnson, etc.

I'll admit that even though I was alive during Perot's and Nader's respective heydays, I was too busy watching "Animaniacs" to care either way what they did. I knew that Clinton was president and I had some sort of opinion about Bob Dole, but I don't remember what it was other than that he was way old and Clinton wasn't. Don't ask me for details, because I don't know them.

Anyways, now we live in 2012. I'm not too up on Perot's or Nader's whereabouts these days, but I do see quite a bit about Gary Johnson around town and on campus. For instance, a week or two ago I was greeted by a large tarpaulin sign out behind the Student Union that featured nothing but Gary Johnson's name, a picture of some marijuana cigarettes, and the motto "Gary gets it" plastered across the top in large, comforting letters. Well, Gary may "get it", but I certainly didn't. Not the pot thing, but the whole "voting for someone who has a snowball in Mesa's chance at winning the election" thing.

Johnson fans are prepared for skeptics like myself. As pointed out by one of his fans on my FB friends list, "if everyone wasted their vote on him, he'd win". Well, so would Mickey Mouse. In fact, it's highly plausible that Mickey Mouse will pull more votes than plenty of these third-party candidates, if not necessarily Johnson himself. That's a rather silly argument to make about your candidate, because what it really does instead of inspiring confidence is come off with the hipster vibe I mentioned above. It feels like "well, my candidate will never win and you won't vote for him, but I will because then I can get in everyone else's face about how I voted for someone that no one had ever heard about".

This is not a hipster music debate. This is my attempt to understand how an American voter could knowingly (to use a very rough comparison) throw their ballot in the blender, all in order to stand on a soapbox come November 7th to preach to us about how "I voted for x" or "all candidates are the same except for the one I voted for". All I have to say to the first is "how'd that work out for you, to know that your ballot was essentially meaningless in the face of the rest of the popular vote, much less the electoral vote?" What I have to say to the second is "wow, you haven't been paying attention at all to anything but your nobody candidate, have you?" I really don't equivocate on this one.

I have a temporary job as an early ballot registration canvasser. I've also done some volunteering with voter registration on campus. Most of the people I've talked to are already registered, but occasionally I'll get a really unique response that just makes my mouth hang open. Something like "I don't vote", or "I'm too old for that". Well played, sir... NOT. I haven't run into any adamant third-party voters yet, but I'm pretty sure I know how the conversation would go.

Back to the pot thing. Rather than highlighting some more pressing issues on the Johnson/Libertarian platform, his reps on my campus decided to just focus our attention on one thing: smoking dope. They probably figured it would be a sure-fire hit, since my whole campus smells like pot smoke after 8:00 PM. But inquiring minds want to know: what else will he do? "Well," they said, "he won't start a war with Iran." OK, we're on the right track here, but neither will Obama. Can't we just reelect him instead of going with a Libertarian and all the other things inherent in their platform? Like that whole states' rights thing that the Tea Party gets so much traction out of flogging to death with neo-Confederate rhetoric and "land appropriation" bills in state congresses across the nation.

Look: if you want pot legalization, that's a tough call. The Obama administration doesn't plan to budge in the slightest on this one, but if you honestly think that pot legalization is the most important issue in this whole campaign, you've either not been watching the build-up to the election, or you've been lighting up too much of the sweet stuff to see the many-headed elephant in the room known as "GOP fascist theocracy rearing its ugly head if the Democratic Party doesn't win next month". You think things are bad now with government overreach? Just wait until you get guys like Reps. Hubbard and Fuqua out of Arkansas, who think that "slavery wasn't all that bad" and that citizenship in the US should include some kind of religious exclusion for Muslims. Does those sound like Constitutional principles to you? Or how about more Tea Party reps like those in North Carolina that talk tough about "small government", which really means "it's small compared to a Gatorade bottle and fits inside your uterus (but not ours, because we're men)"? Doesn't really smack of governmental non-intrusion, now does it?

We're approaching the point of this post. I promise. If you're reading this and you plan on voting third-party, I'm sorry if I roughed you up too much in the preceding paragraphs... It hurt me a whole lot more than it hurt you, and I'm being dead serious there. I don't really see many voters in your situation changing your minds on some of these issues. What I would like to see, however, is an acknowledgement of something that Democrats (and Republicans at times) have understood for some time now: compromise is essential to progress.

Just as liberalism used to mean an ideology pushing for rapid change and progress, conservatism used to mean progress as well, but it was more measured and methodical, certainly more so than the socialist movements that arose in the US around the turn of the century. This was also a time when Republicans were pioneers in resource conservation and worker protection. I'm most referring to President Roosevelt the First here, but his ideas enjoyed support then and are still inspirational now. Was he a perfect president? By all means, no. Read some of the things he had to say about the Philippines after we "liberated" them from the Spanish. Sure, they won the war with our help, but then when they asked if they could just hang onto that nice sovereignty thing they'd wanted during the revolution, we pretty much gave them a middle finger and fought the Vietnam War 60 years too early, the biggest difference being that we "won".

That being said, even Teddy wasn't perfect. The system needs balance. It needs compromise. If that means we sacrifice some of our pet legislation to the greater good, then so be it. Exercise a great deal of care, talk out your points and/or grievances, then see that going your own way isn't always the best idea. Sure, I'm tired of Democrats playing too nicely with Republicans who lie, but to conflate the distinction between the Tea Party and the moderate Republicans who still exist out there somewhere will do more harm than good. So will looking down the ballot on November 6th and saying that either "both candidates are the same" or "none of them meet all my expectations perfectly, therefore I'll give my vote to someone who will in all likelihood pull in no more than 4% of the vote if that".

You'd actually be pretty hard-pressed to find a Democrat out there who agrees unquestioningly with every single thing that President Obama has done. Heaven knows it's hard to find a Republican who honestly believes that everything Romney touches turns to gold. Even his campaign workers have to spin and twist his words to get some semblance of continuity between him and the language of his campaign platform... But you know what? That's just the nature of the beast. If you want a candidate who represents you perfectly and believes exactly the same way you do, then you should just go ahead and run now, because I promise you now that the phantom clone candidate that you're looking for simply doesn't exist. I'm serious: go run for something next election. I don't care what office you go after, but if you have some good ideas and a willingness to listen to your potential constituents, why not just go ahead and run?

In this election, however, our obligation is to vote. Not for a candidate whose total voter pull could be threatened by Mickey Mouse, but for a candidate who's been able to demonstrate progress in several areas. Even Reagan's old buddies at the Annenberg Public Policy Center concede that the Obama administration has had some rough times and frankly screwed up in certain areas, but these facts can't be denied: consumer confidence is up, unemployment is on a downward trend line from where it was a couple years ago, around 325,000 jobs have been added in this last year, etc.

Do give credit where it's deserved. Don't give it where it isn't.

Do stay informed. Don't wash your hands of this election and the discussion surrounding it, no matter how annoying or disturbing it may become.

Do vote. Don't throw away that right by either abstaining or giving your vote to a candidate who has no earthly chance of winning, especially if you're doing so for the purpose of standing on an ideological soapbox above the rest of us.

I know that post was basically telling you to vote for President Obama, but let's be real here: you really thought Romney could win this thing? And even if he could, would you really want him to?

31 comments:

  1. If I'm reading this right, by your logic, I should vote for Mitt Romney.

    See, I live in Mississippi, and there is no reasonable scenario under which Barack Obama wins Mississippi's electoral votes.

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    1. No. If Obama has a good showing in the South, it forces the R's to spend resources there that they would otherwise spend contesting swing states.

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    2. And yet Romney will still win Mississippi by a larger margin than all of the third party votes put together.

      Again, there is no reasonable scenario under which Barack Obama wins (or even comes close to winning) Mississippi's electoral votes. By the logic of the above "you stupid kids" rant (which I don't take personally, because I'm in my 40s and coming from a different place, and the people described in the rant probably are stupid kids) voting for Obama does no good because he has no chance of winning.

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    3. I'm with Damon on this one. You may want to consider your logic for going with the flow on this one. Real change will not come from the two dominate parties, if you're ok with that, vote for either.

      Consider some of these thoughts as well:
      http://fubarandgrill.org/node/1172

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    4. Damon, if not voting for Obama makes sense to you let me ask if you do not do other things that will be never be accepted by a majority of your fellow Mississippians? If you vote you will be make a sound that not only the Repubs can hear, your neighbors may also hear, and echo. Take a stand, even if you lose, you'll be standing.

      Macon, GA

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    5. No, in fact not voting for Obama does NOT make sense to me; it's what I did in 2008 (he didn't win the state then, either.)

      I am merely pointing out the logical flaw here.

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    6. The reality is that if "R's" win by less in MS than normal, they won't care if they had won by their usual margin. "R's" in that state will continue to behave as they always have.

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    7. (my last statement didn't quite come out right: I did vote for Obama last time, and barring something incredible, I probably will this time, but my general thesis still stands.)

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    8. Even in Mississippi, there's a sizable difference between voting for Obama and voting for what I described as a "Mickey Mouse candidate". One is a national-level nominee who could very well pull this off again, and the other is the super small-time nominee that only a few outside of his/her own respective party circle actually know anything substantive about.

      I'm in Arizona and still voting for Obama. This isn't contrary to the logic above, and neither will your voting for Obama either.

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  2. That was a great article and I enjoyed reading it. Very well stated, keep up the good work! And yes, VOTE!!! (Obama of course)

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  3. I notice you left out the green party candidate, Jill Stein. Why is that?

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    1. I actually sympathize with the Green Party's platform, but she honestly slipped my mind when I wrote this last night. The Greens did pretty well in 2000 (a little less than 3 million votes) but the last two elections have had pretty abysmal showings. Also, as pointed out by another comment below, the Green platform is frequently used by the GOP as a way to siphon votes away from Democratic contenders.

      Ideally, the Greens would be stronger; if the GOP splits sometime in the next couple years, the resulting four-way balance of power would certainly be a lot more representative of the American electorate than the current system. My issue with voting third-party in the present circumstances is that since the two main parties are so dominant, the smaller ones end up as tools for the Dems and GOP to take votes away from their opponents' candidates.

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  4. It kills me how your mindset is "your candidate can't possibly win"! As if that's the only reason I vote third party. Yea, I need to assuage my ego by voting for someone who "can win".
    I vote for who EARNS my vote. Not so I can feel smug and happy that my guy won. And right now, the only candidate who stands for what I stand for, is Gary Johnson. The Libertarian candidate.
    I wish our candidate was still Bob Barr, as I'm not completely enthralled with Johnson, but whatever.
    I've been actively voting Libertarian since '92.

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    1. I've voted for plenty of people that ended up winning. I never got my "We Won" check.

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    2. You need to go to the Philippines for that...

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    3. Hate to break it to you, but until we have three or four parties that create a more even balance of power, a vote for the Libertarians in the current environment is pretty much just another vote for President Obama, as far as both the Dems and GOP are concerned. I've said it before, a three- or four-party system would be great, but none of the alternative parties are really strong enough at the moment to stand a chance against the Big Two.

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    4. How, exactly, are these third parties supposed to get stronger if people don't vote for them?

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    5. Teddy Roosevelt started the Bull Moose Party pretty much by standing up in the RNC and saying "I'm outta here, and anyone who wants to come with me is now a Bull Moose". It takes a mix of charisma, discontent, and support, something the Tea Party has capitalized on remarkably well. This is part of the reason why rumors/predictions of a GOP split have been floated a few times in the last couple years.

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  5. You know, I really have to agree with this 100%. I'm sure that there are some people who vote third party simply because they agree with their candidates on many issues but they simply don't realize that by sticking to the "perfect" candidate who has no chance of winning, they are ushering in some of the worst candidates in history. Back in 2000, in the election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, the winning margin in multiple states was well within the amount of votes received for third party candidates. Third parties cost Al Gore the presidency and allowed King George to begin his reign of terror. There's a reason why the Republicans donate to the Green Party. They know they take away votes from democrats and make it easy for their candidates to win.
    In the past, I just shook my head and rolled my eyes when people would start talking about a third party candidate but for the past few years, they're becoming election spoilers, and with the people that the Republican party is putting forward, that can have very, very dangerous consequences. Many of these Republicans, on a national level, are gleefully saying things that just a few years ago would have ended their career. They talk about bringing back slavery, ending Medicare and Social Security. They talk about kicking people out of low income housing and off of food stamps. They talk about raising taxes on the middle class and giving tax breaks to the rich. They talk about how parents should be able to kill their children and how minorities should be denied rights. They talk about how the Bible should be a higher law than the Constitution. At the risk of sounding like a Ron Paul supporter, you people need to WAKE UP. That lovely warm sensation you get from voting for your third party candidates doesn't feel so good when you realize that you've just pissed yourself and ruined a perfectly good pair of pants (the pair of pants being the United States). The Tea Party clowns are going to ruin this country and turn it into a third world hellhole if people don't start voting for the candidates that are actually capable of protecting their rights, not some doped up flower child who decided to put down the bong one day and run for office.
    Also, to all you people complaining that the Democrats don't believe the things you do, that's because you don't VOTE. Why would a politician take the risk of supporting the legalization of marijuana when they know that only around 20% of young people vote? Once you start voting, then you will see politicians start to take your issues seriously. Why else do you think the elderly get almost everything they want? It's because politicians know THEY VOTE!!!

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    1. And in case you need proof of my claims: http://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/GOP-donors-funding-Nader-Bush-supporters-give-2708705.php

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    2. Thanks for covering a point I accidentally neglected, namely that until these third-party groups are stronger, they'll pretty much be tools for the larger parties. Not necessarily that Dems of the GOP will have direct influence, but more along the lines of what you said about parties like the Greens or Libertarians being used to distract votes away from one candidate or another. I think the Greens have a lot of things going for them, but size certainly isn't one of them.

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    3. Michael, I hope you don't mind, but I shared your comment as a status yesterday. I didn't put your name on it to value your privacy, but I did make it clear that I wasn't the original author.

      To the best of my knowledge, that status- your comment- has been shared 91 times on Facebook, meaning it's been seen by probably 3000-4000 people now. Reactions have all been very positive from what I've seen, and I'd say that the negative responses have just been butthurt caused by the truth.

      Congrats!

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  6. You should read a book called "The Lucifer Effect". It is basically, when you get down to it, how humans are coded to go with the flow and with whatever is popular. At one time in our "evolution", if you went against the "flow" then you could be outcast from your tribe and later other societies. People who were too independent in their thoughts were eyed with suspicion.

    Sometimes, in order to feel accepted by our "group" we as humans have went along with some nasty crap without speaking up. I think that is what is being asked here. I think it is a manipulation to make people be like the "in-crowd" (Republican or Democrat). And the repetition of this mantra are whey we get equally screwed by both parties. Sorry, but forcing me to buy health insurance doesn't sit well with me, but I would have been happy to have a one-payer system. The Patriot Act doesn't sit well with me. I feel the dems have sold out their base to some degree in the past 8 years.

    I live in TX. Romney will win no matter who I vote for. If I vote 3rd party or Obama, then he will still be lacking X amount of vote - and he still won't care since we have an electoral college system and he knew he had the EC votes already for this state.

    If I were in a swing state? I might vote AGAINST Romney by voting for Obama. But in my situation it doesn't matter one bit.

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    1. I was an independent for a few years before I registered as a Democrat. It wasn't so much that I agreed with them 100%, but more that I wanted to be able to vote in the primaries and get the GOP to stop thinking that I could be swayed to their side. It can feel pretty useless to support Obama in some states- Arizona is a lot like Texas in that respect- but Democrats are doing a lot to get their disillusioned members out to the polls. We have the numbers in many cases, just not enough enthusiasm to overcome the Tea Party's rabid zealotry that will most assuredly vote in droves.

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  7. 1. Hypothesis appears to be correct in this instance, since you have an essentially untested prediction. The alternate hypothesis would be that third party voters are not hipster voters. You then design a test to rule out the alternate hypothesis. Once you validate the hypothesis under "all" situations, you could reasonably start to call it a theory. Until then, only "theory" in the more popular sense would be valid.

    2. There is no way, in Arizona, for Obama to surpass Romney, even with an estimated 4% third party vote supporting Obama. However, if an additional 1%, from anywhere, back a third party candidate, they might reach the 5% that would put them on the map for all those people who don't even know that third party candidates exist. That might shake up the bipartisan system enough to make people actually compromise and cross party lines to win support, and might actually make the votes of people outside of swing states count for something.

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    1. See, that's why I called it a hypothesis. I could be wrong. On the other hand, KPHO just debuted some new poll data that gives Obama a two-point edge over Romney. Whether this plays out or not, the hope is that a Democratic resurgence here in AZ could unseat Arpai and net us Carmona in the Senate. Even if Obama loses AZ, it's going to be those who vote Democrat who make that shift possible. Unless a bunch of Republicans want to put their votes with Libertarians instead of their own candidates, the only way to start getting the crazies out of office (at this point, at least) is to start by voting in Democrats.

      There's another hypothesis floating around, namely that the Tea Party and the moderate Republicans could split up. This would certainly be interesting, and could even prove a catalyst for Green Party growth. That scenario could certainly prove more fair than the current one.

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  8. Great post. Something I've been telling people for years; you not voting is another vote for the guy you least want to see win.

    It doesn't always work out that way, but more often than not.

    I think the biggest reason third parties will not see any movement for a long time is that they put forth the most radical, and extreme candidates. As is kind of asserted by this post, compromise is necessary, and the candidates these parties are trying to push are not in the vein of compromise, they're in the vein of "BOTH PARTIES ARE THE SAME AND WE'RE SO FUCKING FANTASTICALLY DIFFERENT THAT YOU SHOULD VOTE FOR US!!!".

    That's worked so well, it's a wonder they haven't caught on.

    P.S. you clearly live in AZ, but I wonder if we know each other. If we do, and I should remember, please bear in mind that I'm suffering from sometimers. It's like alzheimer's, but not all the time.

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  9. You should vote for the person who most represents your values and your priorities. Don't expect to agree with him/her on every issue, you won't.

    If the person you want to represent you is a 'third party' or independent candidate, it is important to vote for them and support them. One doesn't "have" to be dem or rep to be intelligent and responsible. It looks like that compromise may only come with the election of independent middle of the road elected officials that will be ready to work without labels. When you find one, vote for them and tell yours friends.

    Making an intelligent choice is never a wasted vote. The wasted votes are the one based solely on party affiliation.

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    1. No. In this years' election, if you choose to vote for a third party candidate in light of all that has be discerned from everything about elections in the last 12 years:

      1) you clearly don't understand the law of unintended consequences

      2) you aren't considering how the agenda of either major party may affect your family, friends, co-workers, industry or environment, even if you are too blinded by your ego and your self-righteousness to vote for the third party candidate who truly represents you

      3) Your logical fallacy is that wasted votes are the ones based solely on party affiliation. This is your argument to support voting for a third party, because you have nothing else to justify voting for a third party candidate that could swing the election to one side or the other.

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